An Analysis of Factors Leading to
A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of
Doctor of Philosophy at
By
Steven J. Allen
Bachelor of Arts,
Master of Arts,
Juris Doctor,
Director: Dr. Peter
M. Leitner
Department of Biodefense
Summer Semester 2007
Copyright 2007 Steven J. Allen
All Rights Reserved
DEDICATION
This is for those who fought and won the Cold War, and
saved us all.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to thank Dr. Ken
Alibek and Dr. Peter Leitner, for creating the world’s best Biodefense program
and for dedicating themselves to the students in the program.
I would like to thank the
other members of the Biodefense program.
There is probably no other academic program in the world in which
students rely on one another for help in understanding the diverse fields that
comprise Biodefense.
I would like to thank those
who helped guide me in the investigatory process, including Joseph Douglass,
Neil Livingstone, Gary Crocker, Herb Meyer, Doug Feith, Clifton Spendwell, Al
Mauroni, Forrest Russel Frank, Joseph DeSutter, Robert F. Turner, Doug Brown, Zafer
Boybeyi, Howard Phillips, Rockne Roll, and the staff of the Nixon presidential
materials collection at the National Archives.
Most of all, I would like to
thank my wife Deb, for her patience and support and for our wonderful children,
who will read this someday and understand why Daddy spent so much time working
in the basement.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Introduction............................................................................................................…….….1
1. Background: biological weapons.......................................................................... …11
2. Theodor Rosebury and the beginning of the biological
Cold War.......................... .22
3. Pugwash and the quest for peace with the Soviets.................................................. 50
4. Arms control and the race
with a single runner........................................................ 82
5.
6. A mighty wind: Dugway and the six thousand dead sheep.................................. .135
7. The interlude after Dugway.................................................................................... 198
8. Completely new mistakes: Kissinger, Nixon, and the NSC.................................. .206
9. The NSC review (part one).................................................................................... .229
10. The NSC review and the lack
of good intelligence................................................ 286
11. The NSC review and the scientific stacking of the deck...................................... .331
12. Technological surprise and the feasibility of
biological weapons.......................... .358
13. The NSC review (part two).................................................................................... 387
14. The NSC review, as a game.................................................................................... 443
15. The toxins ‘slip up,’ the BWC, and the creation of the
Soviet BW monopoly .464
16. Summary and conclusion....................................................................................... .497
Methodology……………………………………...............................................……….502
Suggestions for further research..........................................................................……….506
List of References................................................................................................……….507
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Page
Figure 1: Map of the Dugway area.............................................................................. .134
Steven J. Allen, PhD
Dissertation Director: Dr. Peter
M. Leitner
Shortly after taking office, President Richard M. Nixon ordered a review of
This dissertation examines the factors – including those
related to the diplomatic community, the intelligence community,
scientist-activist organizations, and national and international politics –
that led to Nixon’s decision to renounce biological weapons, and shows the
flaws in the presidential decision-making process that caused President Nixon
to make a decision based, at least in part, on questionable information.